Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.493992 0.573688 0.659575 0.758711 0.869665 0.989700 1.129054
2025-04-06 0.369795 0.471850 0.590088 0.736053 0.910181 1.109999 1.355302
2025-04-13 0.276149 0.387207 0.525368 0.707225 0.937384 1.215924 1.575111
2025-04-20 0.217775 0.335234 0.491820 0.710785 1.003370 1.374740 1.874751
2025-04-27 0.167991 0.285237 0.453081 0.702447 1.053777 1.520437 2.174617
2025-05-04 0.133033 0.249330 0.427949 0.709207 1.125602 1.702190 2.540344
2025-05-11 0.104323 0.216695 0.402120 0.711413 1.191807 1.883793 2.924330
2025-05-18 0.075831 0.177052 0.357938 0.679020 1.203558 1.990543 3.215314
2025-05-25 0.053198 0.141273 0.312719 0.637367 1.195570 2.067622 3.471105
2025-06-01 0.039893 0.119914 0.288663 0.627524 1.237182 2.223683 3.857644
2025-06-08 0.029463 0.101051 0.265070 0.614451 1.271663 2.371801 4.244527
2025-06-15 0.023891 0.092086 0.259891 0.635447 1.368179 2.628786 4.822027
2025-06-22 0.016483 0.074775 0.232754 0.610045 1.381562 2.755698 5.212603
2025-06-29 0.011769 0.062859 0.214861 0.600618 1.424038 2.936990 5.708370
2025-07-06 0.008068 0.051745 0.195425 0.583930 1.450319 3.092725 6.174310
2025-07-13 0.006041 0.045677 0.187898 0.593461 1.531003 3.353794 6.840187
2025-07-20 0.004284 0.039116 0.176613 0.591626 1.587834 3.575951 7.454092
2025-07-27 0.003167 0.034678 0.170523 0.602010 1.672715 3.858624 8.195501
2025-08-03 0.002273 0.030369 0.163209 0.607702 1.747997 4.128983 8.932232
2025-08-10 0.001377 0.024240 0.146213 0.582238 1.748095 4.250696 9.402630
2025-08-17 0.000756 0.018617 0.127900 0.547890 1.721757 4.316068 9.770912
2025-08-24 0.000468 0.015580 0.119175 0.541135 1.762319 4.522882 10.422314
2025-08-31 0.000273 0.012855 0.110181 0.531138 1.793193 4.711421 11.049165